Among the key findings of May 2026 Survey (May 1-31) were:

Inflation: Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0% at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons in May.

Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%. This is the highest reading since July 2022. The increase was most pronounced for the West and Midwest Census regions.

Labor Market: Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained stable at 2.7% in May, remaining slightly above their 12-month trailing average of 2.6%. Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%, remaining above their 12-month trailing average of 41.1%.

The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.5 percentage point to 15.1%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.4%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 2.6 percentage points to 20.8%, its highest level since February 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.

Household Finance: Perceptions about households’ current financial situation compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation, marking the highest reading since January 2023, and a slightly smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situation also deteriorated, with an increase in the net share of households expecting a worse financial situation. The net share of households expecting a better versus worse financial situation in one year is at its lowest level since October 2022.