Federal Cuts, Weaker Economic Forecast

Could Cause $34B Budget Gap: Comptroller

ALBANY-A sobering report released last week indicated that the state’s financial plan through 2029 has a growing structural budget deficit with a cumulative three-year budget gap of $34.3 billion, as forecasted by the Division of the Budget. When accounting for recent federal actions, the gaps as a share of spending could reach levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis of 2009, according the report.

The $34.3-billion gap is up $7 billion since the January release of the Fiscal Year 2026 Executive Budget Financial Plan. The gap is attributable to downward revisions to the economic forecast and projected revenues as well as increases in projected spending.

“The Financial Plan paints a challenging picture for the state that will only grow more problematic with the incoming federal cuts from the reconciliation bill signed by the President,” State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said. “This is likely just the beginning; the relationship between the federal government and the states is being restructured, and state governments will be facing drastic reductions in federal aid that could force difficult decisions about state revenue and spending priorities. There is an urgent need to formulate a fiscal response to the federal reconciliation bill and support New York’s safety net.”

New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli

The economic forecast published with the Financial Plan was revised downwards from the projections made with the Consensus Forecast report on March 1. Job gains both nationally and statewide slowed through May. Average monthly employment growth in New York was 4,600 jobs, down from 19,100 for the same period last year. For the current fiscal year, DOB is projecting a weaker New York economy with both wage and personal income growth forecasted to decelerate from their previous fiscal year levels, according to the State Comptroller’s report.

Impact of Federal Actions

Analysis by the State Comptroller, based on information currently available, indicates that the early impacts of spending provisions of the federal budget bill will result in lost federal receipts between $27 billion and $29.6 billion over the Financial Plan period. Besides increasing the number of New Yorkers who are uninsured or suffering from food insecurity, the state will also contend with changes made to terminate funding for climate, clean energy, and resiliency programs, many of which were approved under the Inflation Reduction Act. These changes will slow the transition to clean energy and make it more costly for consumers and small businesses.

To read the full report, go to www.osc.ny.gov/files/reports/pdf/enacted-2026-financial-plan-report.pdf.

Published: August 13, 2025

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